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Will the U.S. CPI drop from 8.5% to 8.1%? This is worth watching.

Market Report

Will the U.S. CPI drop from 8.5% to 8.1%? This is worth watching.

Today's Highlights
  1. U.S. Consumer Price Index
  2. UK Employment Statistics

In yesterday’s U.S. currency markets, the U.S. dollar faced resistance as expectations grew that the U.S. CPI—scheduled for release today—would have peaked, fueling speculation that the pace of monetary tightening would ease. The GBP/USD pair rose by about 110 pips yesterday and continues to rebound along the 20-period moving average on the hourly chart.Today’s U.S. CPI is forecast to come in at 8.1% year-over-year, so we will be watching closely to see if it comes in below market expectations.

European currencies saw the euro rise across the board following the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine. The euro/yen pair rose by more than 2 yen yesterday and is currently trading around 144.345.From a technical perspective, the euro/yen pair is trading just below the 10-period moving average on the 4-hour chart, and with RSI divergence evident, traders should be wary of a potential decline as U.S. trading hours approach.

Today’s schedule includes the UK Employment Report and the German Consumer Price Index at 15:00 during Asian trading hours, followed by Swiss Producer and Import Prices at 15:30; during European trading hours, Turkish Industrial Production at 16:00, the German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index and the Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index at 18:00,at 19:00 the U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index; during U.S. trading hours at 21:30 the U.S. Consumer Price Index; at 26:00 the U.S. 30-year Treasury auction; at 27:00 the U.S. budget balance; and at 7:45 the following day New Zealand’s second-quarter current account balance.We will be watching closely to see if the U.S. CPI falls from 8.5% to 8.1%.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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