All eyes are on whether the U.S. CPI will exceed the forecast of 8.8%

All eyes are on whether the U.S. CPI will exceed the forecast of 8.8%

13.07.2022

In the previous session, the US dollar faced resistance as the yield on the 10-year Treasury note edged down slightly to 2.98%. The EUR/USD pair, which had been expected to break below parity, rebounded from a low of 1.0000 and rose to 1.0071. However, since the 4-hour chart continues to show a downtrend along the 10-period moving average, I intend to maintain a bearish outlook until the pair breaks above 1.0088, which is near the 20-period moving average.

European currencies continued to weaken as the market reacted negatively to the significant deterioration in Germany’s July ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, which came in at -53.8 yesterday—well below the market forecast of -40.0. The euro fell against the pound from 0.8484 to 0.8426. Since the pair is breaking below the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) on the daily chart, we will be watching closely to see if the decline continues.

Today, at 3:00 PM Asia time, UK GDP, industrial production, and trade balance will be released, along with the German CPI at 3:45 PM; at 6:00 PM Europe time, the EurozoneIndustrial Production, the U.S. Consumer Price Index at 21:30 U.S. time, the Bank of Canada (BOC) policy rate and statement at 23:00, U.S. weekly crude oil inventories at 23:30, a press conference by BOC Governor Macklem at 24:00, a U.S. 30-year Treasury auction at 26:00, and the U.S. Federal Reserve Beige Book at 27:00.Today’s U.S. CPI is expected to come in at 8.8% year-over-year. We will be watching closely to see if the figure exceeds this forecast.

Past Market Reports

1. 22.04.2026New

   Will interest grow in the upside potential of the Swiss franc, which has risen against the yen?

2. 21.04.2026New

   With the euro-Australian dollar pair hitting new lows this month, attention is turning to how much further it might fall

3. 20.04.2026New

   Will the market wait and see how much further the U.S. dollar can rise against the yen?

4. 17.04.2026New

   Will the weakening Swiss franc recover? Attention is turning to price movements during European trading hours.

5. 16.04.2026New

   Market participants are likely keeping a close eye on the upside potential of the euro, which has risen against the U.S. dollar

6. 15.04.2026

   Should we keep an eye on remarks by key figures in the U.S. and try to gauge the direction of currency strength?

7. 14.04.2026

   Market participants are likely watching for signs of a rebound in the Canadian dollar, which fell against the U.S. dollar following the release of employment figures

8. 13.04.2026

   Will the weakening Swiss franc continue to strengthen against the yen, or should we wait and see?

9. 10.04.2026

   Will the U.S. dollar, which has fallen against the yen, continue its downward slide, or should we wait and see how the market moves?

10. 09.04.2026

    Should we keep an eye on the upside for European currencies that have risen against the U.S. dollar?