Should we be wary of further upside potential in the franc-yen pair, which has reached a 42-year high?
28.06.2022
- German GfK Consumer Confidence Survey
- U.S. Consumer Confidence Index
Yesterday, the U.S. dollar continued to rise against the euro, with the EUR/USD pair climbing approximately 70 pips from 1.054 to 1.061. On the hourly chart, the EUR/USD has surpassed its recent high of 1.060, and on the 4-hour chart, it is gradually reaching new highs. We will be watching closely to see if this upward trend continues and whether the pair can firmly break above the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart.
In the European currency market, the Swiss franc is showing strength, rising against both the yen and the U.S. dollar. In particular, the CHF/JPY pair—which is trading near a 42-year high—is climbing rapidly toward last week’s high of 141.887, recorded on the 22nd, and is currently hovering around 141.562 during today’s Asian trading session. Since the 20-period moving average is providing solid support on the hourly chart, we should pay close attention to whether this upward trend will continue.
Today’s schedule includes the German GfK Consumer Confidence Survey at 15:00 (Asia time) and the French Consumer Confidence Index at 15:45 (Asia time); in Europe, ECB President Lagarde will speak at 17:00 (Europe time) and BOE Deputy Governor Kanliff will speak at 19:00 (Europe time); and in the U.S., U.S. Wholesale Inventories (flash estimate) will be released at 21:30 (U.S. time),at 10:00 PM, the U.S. S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index; at 11:00 PM, the U.S. Consumer Confidence Index, the U.S. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, and remarks by U.S. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Daly; and at 2:00 AM, the U.S. 7-year Treasury auction. We should remain cautious about the upside potential of the rising CHF/JPY pair.
Author: Keisuke Sakurai
