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Should We Be Wary of Further Upside Potential in the Franc-Yen Pair, Which Has Reached a 42-Year High?

Market Report

Should We Be Wary of Further Upside Potential in the Franc-Yen Pair, Which Has Reached a 42-Year High?

Today's Highlights
  1. German GFK Consumer Confidence Survey
  2. U.S. Consumer Confidence Index

The previous day, the U.S. dollar continued to rise against the euro, albeit weakly, with the EUR/USD pair climbing approximately 70 pips from 1.054 to 1.061.On the hourly chart, the EUR/USD pair has surpassed its recent high of 1.060, and on the 4-hour chart, it is gradually setting new highs. We will be watching closely to see if this upward trend continues and whether the pair can firmly break above the 200 SMA on the 4-hour chart.

Among European currencies, the Swiss franc is showing strength, rising against both the yen and the U.S. dollar. In particular, the franc/yen pair—which is trading near a 42-year high—is climbing at a pace that threatens to reach last week’s high of 141.887 set on the 22nd, and is currently trading around 141.562 during today’s Asian session.Since the price is being firmly supported by the 20-period moving average (MA) on the hourly chart, we should pay close attention to whether this upward trend will continue.

Today, during Asian trading hours, the German GfK Consumer Confidence Survey will be released at 15:00, followed by the FrenchConsumer Confidence Index, followed by remarks by ECB President Lagarde at 17:00 during European trading hours, remarks by BOE Deputy Governor Kanrif at 19:00, U.S. Wholesale Inventories (flash estimate) at 21:30 during U.S. trading hours,at 22:00 the U.S. S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, at 23:00 the U.S. Consumer Confidence Index and the U.S. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, a statement by San Francisco Fed President Daily at 26:00, and a U.S. 7-year Treasury auction at 26:00.We should remain cautious about the upside potential of the rising CHF/JPY pair.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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