Keep an eye on changes in volatility during U.S. trading hours
30.05.2022
- U.S. markets closed for Memorial Day
- Canada: First-Quarter Current Account Balance
Last weekend, the U.S. dollar traded in a tight range against the yen and the euro, while the GBP/USD pair moved sideways between 1.258 and 1.266.However, looking at the hourly chart, the pair has been rebounding gradually since hitting a bottom on May 13. We will need to monitor the RSI levels carefully to determine whether the rally will continue up to around 1.273, which is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level on the daily chart.
Among European currencies, the Swiss franc has shown a notable rebound, with the CHF/JPY pair posting a strong bullish candle for the second consecutive week. During today’s Asian session, the pair has been trading around 132.77. Although the upward trend continues, the gains have been modest, keeping the RSI on the 4-hour chart below 70. With the CHF/JPY already above the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart, we need to carefully assess whether the pair will continue to rise.
Today’s schedule includes Germany’s Import Price Index and Japan’s Machine Tool Orders at 15:00 CET, Switzerland’s KOF Leading Index and South Africa’s Fiscal Balance at 16:00 CET, Canada’s Q1 Current Account Balance at 21:30 EST,at 12:00 AM, remarks by Fed Governor Waller; at 2:00 AM, remarks by German Bundesbank President Nagel; and at 7:45 AM the following day, New Zealand housing construction permits. Since U.S. markets are closed today for Memorial Day, we should be cautious of volatility during U.S. trading hours.
Author: Keisuke Sakurai
