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Should we be watching for changes in volatility during U.S. trading hours?

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Should we be watching for changes in volatility during U.S. trading hours?

30.05.2022

Today's Highlights
  1. U.S. markets closed for Memorial Day
  2. Canada: First-Quarter Current Account Balance

Last weekend, the U.S. dollar traded in a tight range against the yen and the euro, while the GBP/USD pair moved sideways between 1.258 and 1.266.However, looking at the hourly chart, the pair has been rebounding gradually since hitting a low on May 13. We will need to monitor the RSI level carefully to determine whether the rally will continue up to around 1.273, which is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level on the daily chart.

Among European currencies, the Swiss franc’s rebound has been particularly notable, with the franc/yen pair posting a strong bullish candle for the second consecutive week.During today’s Asian trading session, the pair has been trading around 132.77. Although the upward trend continues, the gains have been modest, keeping the 4-hour RSI below 70. With the CHF/JPY already above the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart, we need to carefully assess whether it will continue to rise from here.

Today, during European trading hours, Germany’s Import Price Index and Japan’s Machine Tool Orders will be released at 15:00, followed by Switzerland’s KOF Leading Index and South Africa’s Fiscal Balance at 16:00. During U.S. trading hours, Canada’s First-Quarter Current Account Balance will be released at 21:30,at 24:00, remarks by U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Waller; at 26:00, remarks by German Bundesbank President Nagel; and at 7:45 the following day, New Zealand housing construction permits. Since U.S. markets are closed today for Memorial Day, traders should be mindful of volatility during U.S. trading hours.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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