Will the Euro Remain Weak Amid the Prolonged Crisis in Ukraine?
06.04.2022
- Harker (U.S.): Remarks by the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
- Release of the U.S. FOMC Minutes
Yesterday, the U.S. dollar gained ground against the euro, with the EUR/USD pair falling by about 100 pips from 1.098 to 1.088. The decline continues along the 20-period moving average on the hourly chart.Yesterday, Lael Brainard, the incoming U.S. Federal Reserve Vice Chair known for her dovish stance, stated that “rapid quantitative tightening (QT) will be necessary at next month’s meeting,” which led to a rise in the U.S. dollar amid expectations of interest rate hikes.
Amid reports of civilian casualties in Ukraine, the euro faced resistance at higher levels. While other yen crosses gained momentum and rose, the euro/yen pair rose by only 80 pips.On the 4-hour chart, the EUR/JPY pair continues to form lower highs and lower lows, and no reversal signals have yet appeared. We need to closely monitor whether the downtrend will continue.
Today’s schedule includes the German Manufacturing PMI at 15:00 European time, the UK Construction PMI at 17:30, the Eurozone Producer Price Index at 18:00, the U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications Index at 20:00, and—once U.S. trading hours begin—remarks by U.S. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Harker at 22:30,remarks by Harker, President of the Philadelphia Fed; at 23:00, the Canadian Ivey Purchasing Managers’ Index and remarks by U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen; at 23:30, U.S. weekly crude oil inventories; and at 27:00, the release of the U.S. FOMC minutes.We will keep a close eye on the euro’s movements while paying attention to key figures’ remarks from European to U.S. trading hours.
Author: Keisuke Sakurai
