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All Eyes on the U.S. Dollar's Movements as the New Fiscal Year Begins

Market Report

All Eyes on the U.S. Dollar's Movements as the New Fiscal Year Begins

01.04.2022

Today's Highlights
  1. U.S. Employment Report
  2. U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index

The U.S. dollar was trading higher against both the euro and the yen yesterday, with the USD/JPY pair rising from 121.28 to 122.73.Meanwhile, for the U.S. employment report scheduled for release today, the market forecast for nonfarm payrolls stands at 490,000, and the unemployment rate is expected to be 3.7%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous reading. We should pay close attention to price movements following today’s employment report release.

Amid reports of ceasefire talks between Russia and Ukraine, European currencies came under broad selling pressure, with the euro falling across the board; the euro/pound pair retreated by about 100 pips from 0.851 to 0.841.From a technical perspective, the EUR/GBP pair has entered a corrective decline after breaking above the daily 200-day SMA. Therefore, while we should anticipate a potential decline toward the recent low around 0.831, we will be closely monitoring whether a further rebound occurs.

Today, during European trading hours, the Swiss Manufacturing PMI will be released at 16:30, the UK Manufacturing PMI at 17:30, and the Eurozone Consumer Price Index (flash estimate) at 18:00. Once U.S. trading hours begin, the U.S. Employment Report will be released at 21:30, followed by remarks from U.S. Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Evans at 22:05:remarks by Chicago Fed President Evans, at 10:05 p.m. the U.S. Manufacturing PMI, at 11:00 p.m. the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index, and U.S. Construction Spending. Now that the new fiscal year has officially begun, we want to closely monitor how the foreign exchange market will move.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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