One month after the invasion of Ukraine, concerns are mounting over a resurgence of geopolitical risks

One month after the invasion of Ukraine, concerns are mounting over a resurgence of geopolitical risks

23.03.2022

Yesterday, the U.S. dollar weakened against the euro, with the EUR/USD pair rebounding by about 80 pips from 1.096 to 1.104. From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD pair found support at the lower boundary of the upward channel on the 4-hour chart, leading to yesterday’s rally. We will be watching closely to see if the upward movement continues toward the upper boundary of the channel, around the 1.114 level.

With Ukrainian President Zelenskyy set to deliver an online address to parliament at 6:00 p.m. today, European currencies are trading mixed. While the euro has rebounded against the U.S. dollar, it has weakened against Oceania currencies, with the euro/Australian dollar pair falling for the fourth consecutive day and trading around 1.475.

Today, at 16:00 CET, the UK Retail Price Index, UK Consumer Price Index, and UK Producer Price Index will be released, along with the Turkish Consumer Confidence Index; at 17:00, the South African Consumer Price Index; at 20:00, the US MBA Mortgage Applications Index; and at 21:00 EST, the UKremarks by Bank of England Governor Bailey and remarks by Federal Reserve Chair Powell, at 23:00 U.S. time U.S. New Home Sales, at 23:30 U.S. time U.S. Weekly Crude Oil Inventories, and at 28:00 U.S. time remarks by U.S. St. Louis Fed President Bullard. Tomorrow marks one month since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine; while taking geopolitical risks into account, I intend to continue monitoring the direction of the euro.

Past Market Reports

1. 22.04.2026New

   Will interest grow in the upside potential of the Swiss franc, which has risen against the yen?

2. 21.04.2026New

   With the euro-Australian dollar pair hitting new lows this month, attention is turning to how much further it might fall

3. 20.04.2026New

   Will the market wait and see how much further the U.S. dollar can rise against the yen?

4. 17.04.2026New

   Will the weakening Swiss franc recover? Attention is turning to price movements during European trading hours.

5. 16.04.2026New

   Market participants are likely keeping a close eye on the upside potential of the euro, which has risen against the U.S. dollar

6. 15.04.2026

   Should we keep an eye on remarks by key figures in the U.S. and try to gauge the direction of currency strength?

7. 14.04.2026

   Market participants are likely watching for signs of a rebound in the Canadian dollar, which fell against the U.S. dollar following the release of employment figures

8. 13.04.2026

   Will the weakening Swiss franc continue to strengthen against the yen, or should we wait and see?

9. 10.04.2026

   Will the U.S. dollar, which has fallen against the yen, continue its downward slide, or should we wait and see how the market moves?

10. 09.04.2026

    Should we keep an eye on the upside for European currencies that have risen against the U.S. dollar?