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Caution Over Risk-Off Yen Buying Trend?

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Caution Over Risk-Off Yen Buying Trend?

21.01.2022

Today's Highlights
  1. Remarks by a Member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee
  2. U.S. Leading Economic Index

Yesterday, in the U.S. market, the three major stock indices all continued to fall toward the close, creating a risk-off sentiment characterized by falling stock prices, lower interest rates, and lower crude oil prices.The fear index (VIX) rose about 7% from the previous day to 25.5, largely reflecting the impact of the stock market decline. However, the Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Index released yesterday came in at 23.2, beating the market forecast of 19.0.

In the foreign exchange market, the yen has emerged as the strongest currency during today’s Asian trading session, and the GBP/JPY pair has fallen by more than 130 pips from 156.04 to 154.70.From a technical perspective, GBP/JPY has broken significantly below the 20-day moving average (MA) on the daily chart and is continuing its decline, with a double top forming. If the yen-buying trend continues, we should keep an eye on the possibility of the pair breaking below the 150-yen psychological level.

Today, at 16:00 European time, UK retail sales,Turkey’s Consumer Confidence Index at 16:00 during European trading hours; a speech by ECB President Lagarde at 21:30; a speech by a member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) at 22:00 during U.S. trading hours; Canada’s Retail Sales at 22:30; and the U.S. Leading Economic Index at 24:00.I want to carefully assess whether the foreign exchange market will see significant volatility this weekend.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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