Attention on the U.S. Core PCE Deflator

Attention on the U.S. Core PCE Deflator

22.12.2021

Yesterday, the three major U.S. stock indices all rebounded, creating a risk-on sentiment characterized by rising stock prices, interest rates, and oil prices. However, some view this as a "dead cat bounce"—a temporary rebound following a sharp decline—so it remains to be seen whether the stock rally will continue. The VIX (fear index) has fallen by about 8% to 21.0.

In the foreign exchange market, the U.S. dollar rose slightly, and the EUR/USD pair fell from 1.130 to 1.126.During today’s Asian trading session, the EUR/USD pair has been testing lower levels. Technically, it is trading below the 20-period moving average on the 4-hour chart, so caution is warranted regarding further declines. The U.S. dollar is also showing strength against the yen, with USD/JPY trading around 114.12. Furthermore, given the recent correlation between the U.S. dollar and the stock market, it is important to monitor stock price movements as well.

Today, at 16:00 CET, the UK will release its Q3 GDP (final reading) and Q3 current account balance; at 16:45 CET, France will release its Producer Price Index; and during US trading hours, at 21:00 ET, the US will release the MBA Mortgage Applications Index, followed by the Q3 GDP (final reading) at 22:30 ET;U.S. personal consumption, U.S. core PCE deflator, and U.S. Chicago Fed National Activity Index; at 12:00 AM, U.S. existing home sales and U.S. consumer confidence; and at 12:30 AM, U.S. weekly crude oil inventories. We should pay close attention to these economic releases to gauge the direction of the U.S. dollar.

Past Market Reports

1. 17.04.2026New

   Will the market wait and see how much further the U.S. dollar can rise against the yen?

2. 16.04.2026New

   Will the weakening Swiss franc recover? Attention is turning to price movements during European trading hours.

3. 15.04.2026New

   Market participants are likely keeping a close eye on the upside potential of the euro, which has risen against the U.S. dollar

4. 14.04.2026New

   Should we keep an eye on remarks by key figures in the U.S. and try to gauge the direction of currency strength?

5. 13.04.2026New

   Market participants are likely watching for signs of a rebound in the Canadian dollar, which fell against the U.S. dollar following the release of employment figures

6. 10.04.2026

   Will the weakening Swiss franc continue to strengthen against the yen, or should we wait and see?

7. 09.04.2026

   Will the U.S. dollar, which has fallen against the yen, continue its downward slide, or should we wait and see how the market moves?

8. 08.04.2026

   Should we keep an eye on the upside for European currencies that have risen against the U.S. dollar?

9. 07.04.2026

   Market participants may be wary of further downside potential for the U.S. dollar, which has weakened amid concerns over the situation in Iran

10. 06.04.2026

    Investors should be wary of sudden spikes in volatility while major markets are closed