Is a rebound in the U.S. dollar likely?

Is a rebound in the U.S. dollar likely?

22.11.2021

Last weekend, two of the three major U.S. stock indices fell, creating a risk-off sentiment characterized by falling stock prices, lower interest rates, and declining crude oil prices. The VIX (fear index) rose by about 1.8% to around 17.9. Canada’s September retail sales data, released last Friday, came in at -0.2%, outperforming the forecast of -1.0% and avoiding the sharp decline the market had anticipated.

The foreign exchange market opened on a calm note, with no significant gaps observed. Although the Dollar Index remains at a high level of 96.0, the U.S. dollar faces resistance at higher levels, and the EUR/USD pair remains near its recent lows after a slight rebound. The EUR/USD is currently trading around 1.126 and remains below the 20-period moving average on the 4-hour chart, so it remains to be seen whether the downtrend will continue.

Today, the Turkish Consumer Confidence Index is scheduled for 4:00 PM, the U.S. Chicago Fed National Activity Index for 10:30 PM, U.S. Existing Home Sales for 12:00 AM, the U.S. 2-year Treasury auction for 1:30 AM, and the U.S. 5-year Treasury auction for 3:00 AM.This week, the US Manufacturing and Services PMI is scheduled for Tuesday, the 23rd; the RBNZ policy rate and statement for New Zealand, along with the release of the FOMC minutes for November, are scheduled for Wednesday, the 24th; the ECB Governing Council minutes for October are scheduled for Thursday, the 25th; and remarks by ECB President Lagarde are scheduled for Friday, the 26th.We will be closely monitoring which direction price movements take in the first half of the week.