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Should We Be Wary of a Decline in Cross-Yen Rates?

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Should We Be Wary of a Decline in Cross-Yen Rates?

27.10.2021

Today's Highlights
  1. U.S. Weekly Crude Oil Inventories
  2. U.S. Durable Goods Orders

Yesterday, the three major U.S. stock indices all extended their gains, resulting in a market environment characterized by rising stock prices, falling interest rates, and lower crude oil prices. WTI crude oil is trading in the $84 range and remains at elevated levels.Lori Fink, CEO of U.S. investment firm BlackRock, stated at an investment conference held yesterday in Saudi Arabia, “Inflation will persist, and there is a high probability that oil prices will rise to $100 per barrel. The number of people who believe inflation is transitory should decrease.”

In the foreign exchange market, cross-yen pairs have been trending slightly lower during today’s Asian session, with GBP/JPY falling from yesterday’s high of 157.69 to 156.85.From a technical perspective, GBP/JPY is forming a triple top on the 4-hour chart, so we need to carefully assess whether this will lead to a significant decline. If the pair does fall, there is no support until 155.92, so it could extend its decline.

Today, at 15:45, France’s Producer Price Index and Consumer Confidence Index will be released; at 16:00, Turkey’s trade balance; at 20:00, the U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications Index; at 21:30, U.S. durable goods orders and wholesale inventories;at 11:00 PM, Canada’s BOC policy rate and statement; at 11:30 PM, U.S. weekly crude oil inventories; at 12:00 AM, a press conference by BOC Governor McClem; and at 2:00 AM, a U.S. 5-year Treasury auction.Given the concentration of economic releases, we should keep a close eye on currency strength and weakness while paying attention to price movements during U.S. trading hours.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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