Market participants may be on the lookout for price movements during U.S. trading hours at the start of the month
01.10.2021
- U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI
- University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
In the previous day's New York market, a trend of falling stock prices, lower interest rates, and higher crude oil prices emerged, fueling a risk-off sentiment characterized by dollar selling and yen buying. The decline was particularly pronounced toward the close, with the U.S. dollar falling in tandem with stock prices.From a technical perspective, if the dollar continues to weaken, it could fall to around 110.917, which is near the 50% retracement level on the hourly chart. Conversely, if a rebound occurs, the pair could target 111.33, which is near the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. However, since the RSI on the daily chart remains high at around 70, caution is advised against chasing the downside just in case.
Today’s schedule includes German retail sales at 3:00 PM, Turkey’s Manufacturing PMI at 4:00 PM, the UK’s Manufacturing PMI at 5:30 PM, the Eurozone’s Consumer Price Index (flash estimate) at 6:00 PM, and Canada’s GDP at 9:30 PM,U.S. personal income and U.S. core PCE deflator at 9:30 PM, U.S. manufacturing PMI at 10:45 PM, U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI and U.S. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index at 11:00 PM, remarks by U.S. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Harker at 12:00 AM, and remarks by U.S. Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Mester at 2:00 AM.
Since yesterday’s daily candlestick—the last trading day of the month—formed a harami pattern, we should remain cautious about the price movement as positions are closed this Friday, the first trading day of the month, and watch for any further downside in the USD/JPY pair.
Author: Keisuke Sakurai
