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Market Participants May Be on Guard Against Price Movements During U.S. Trading Hours at the Start of the Month

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Market Participants May Be on Guard Against Price Movements During U.S. Trading Hours at the Start of the Month

01.10.2021

Today's Highlights
  1. U.S. ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index
  2. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (U.S.)

In the New York market the previous day, the market saw falling stock prices, lower interest rates, and higher crude oil prices, leading to a widespread risk-off sentiment characterized by dollar selling and yen buying. The decline was particularly pronounced toward the close, with the U.S. dollar falling in tandem with stock prices.From a technical perspective, if the dollar continues to weaken, it could fall to around 110.917, which is near the 50% retracement level on the hourly chart. If a rebound occurs, the pair could target 111.33, which is near the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.However, since the RSI on the daily chart remains high at around 70, it is advisable to remain cautious about further downside movements just in case.

Today, German retail sales will be released at 15:00, the Turkish Manufacturing PMI at 16:00, the UK Manufacturing PMI at 17:30, the Eurozone Consumer Price Index [flash estimate] at 18:00,at 9:30 PM, Canadian GDP, U.S. personal income, and the U.S. core PCE deflator; at 10:45 PM, the U.S. manufacturing PMI; at 11:00 PM, the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index; and at 12:00 AM, remarks by Harker,Remarks by Harker, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia; and at 26:00, remarks by Mester, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, are scheduled.

Since the USD/JPY formed a harami candle on yesterday’s daily chart—the last trading day of the month—we should remain cautious about price movements as traders close out positions this Friday, the first trading day of the month, and watch for further downside in the U.S. dollar.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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