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Will the U.S. Employment Report Affect European Currencies?

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Will the U.S. Employment Report Affect European Currencies?

03.09.2021

Today's Highlights
  1. U.S. Employment Report
  2. U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index

Yesterday, U.S. stock prices rose, leading to a “risk-on” market characterized by higher stock prices, lower interest rates, and higher crude oil prices. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 both hit new record highs, albeit by a small margin. The S&P 500 closed at 4,536, up 12 points from the previous day.The number of new U.S. unemployment insurance claims released yesterday came in at 340,000, falling short of the market forecast of 345,000 and marking the lowest level since March 2020.

In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar’s upward momentum has weakened due to a decline in the yield on 10-year US Treasuries, and the EUR/USD pair has risen, finding support at the 20-period moving average (MA) on the hourly chart.The EUR/USD is currently trading around 1.187. However, on the daily chart, it has just reached the 200-day EMA, so this is a critical point to closely monitor to determine whether the rally will continue up to the previous high of 1.190.

Today, at 16:00, Turkey’s Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index will be released; at 17:30, the UK’s Services PMI (final reading);at 6:00 PM, Eurozone retail sales; at 9:30 PM, U.S. employment data and Canada’s second-quarter labor productivity index; at 10:45 PM, the U.S. services PMI (final reading); and at 11:00 PM, the U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index.Nonfarm payrolls in today’s U.S. employment report are expected to come in at 750,000. I intend to closely monitor how much the actual result deviates from this figure.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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