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Should We Keep an Eye on the Pound's Weakening Trend?

Market Report

Should We Keep an Eye on the Pound's Weakening Trend?

20.08.2021

Today's Highlights
  1. UK Retail Sales
  2. Germany: Producer Price Index

Yesterday, U.S. stock prices fell slightly, leading to a risk-off market characterized by lower stock prices, lower interest rates, and lower crude oil prices. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell to 1.23%, weighing on the U.S. dollar.The U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for August, released yesterday, came in at 19.4, falling short of the forecast of 23.0. This appears to reflect a decline in demand due to the spread of the Delta variant.

In the foreign exchange market, with the U.S. dollar facing resistance at higher levels, the pound’s decline has been particularly notable, and the GBP/USD pair has fallen to 1.361.From a technical perspective, GBP/USD has already lost support at its moving average on the daily chart. Unless it rebounds at the recent low of 1.357, there is a risk of a significant break below that level, so this is a situation that calls for cautious judgment.Furthermore, the pound is also weakening against the euro, another European currency, and the EUR/GBP pair has risen for two consecutive days. It is currently trading around 0.857.

Today’s economic indicators include UK retail sales and the German producer price index at 3:00 p.m., Canadian retail sales at 9:30 p.m., and remarks by Kaplan, President of the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank, at midnight.We will be closely monitoring how European currencies, including the pound, react to geopolitical risks.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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