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Will the Decline in the Chinese Market Affect European Currencies?

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Will the Decline in the Chinese Market Affect European Currencies?

28.07.2021

Today's Highlights
  1. Press Conference by U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Powell
  2. France: Consumer Confidence Index

Yesterday, the three major U.S. stock indices all fell, creating a risk-off sentiment characterized by falling stock prices, lower interest rates, and declining crude oil prices. In addition to the U.S. market, the Chinese market also saw sharp declines. The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell by about 5% on concerns over tighter regulations imposed by Chinese authorities on the IT and education sectors.The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note remained unchanged at 1.24%. The VIX (fear index) rose by more than 10% to 19.3.

With the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield facing resistance, the U.S. dollar is also struggling to gain ground. The EUR/USD pair has been rising since yesterday’s European session, rebounding by about 70 pips from 1.177 to 1.184.Following yesterday’s rise, the EUR/USD pair is approaching its 20-day moving average (MA). With today’s daily candle set to close, we are at a stage where we need to assess whether the pair will resume its upward trend.

Today, at 15:00, the German GfK Consumer Confidence Index and German Import Price Index, as well as UK Nationwide House Prices, will be released; at 15:45, the French Consumer Confidence Index; at 20:00, the U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications Index; at 21:30, the Canadian Consumer Price Index and U.S. Wholesale Inventories;at 11:30 p.m., the U.S. Weekly Crude Oil Inventories; at 3:00 a.m., the U.S. FOMC policy rate decision and statement; and at 3:30 a.m., a press conference by U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Powell. We will carefully assess whether European markets, which have been affected by the decline in Chinese markets, can maintain their momentum amid today’s economic data releases.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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