Should we focus on retail sales?

Should we focus on retail sales?

23.06.2021

Yesterday, the three major U.S. stock indices all rose, resulting in a market environment characterized by rising stock prices, a weaker U.S. dollar, and flat commodity prices. U.S. existing home sales, released yesterday, came in at 5.8 million units, exceeding market expectations, though the figure itself marked the fourth consecutive monthly decline. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note has fallen again to 1.46%.

The foreign exchange market has seen the yen-selling trend that began earlier this week continue today. The Canadian dollar, in particular, has gained momentum; the CAD/JPY pair, which had briefly hit a monthly low of 87.96, has recovered to 89.9—the 61.8% retracement level—over the past two days. Meanwhile, the USD/CAD pair has pulled back, falling from this month’s high of 1.248 to 1.230.

Today, the French Manufacturing/Services PMI is scheduled for release at 4:15 PM, the German Manufacturing/Services PMI at 4:30 PM, the Eurozone Manufacturing/Services PMI at 5:00 PM, and the UK Manufacturing/Services PMI at 5:30 PM. As these are all preliminary figures, we should be on the lookout for significant price movements.Additionally, at 8:00 PM, the U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications Index will be released; at 9:30 PM, Canadian Retail Sales and the U.S. Q1 Current Account Balance; at 10:00 PM, remarks by U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Bowman; at 10:45 PM, the U.S. Manufacturing/Services PMI; at 11:00 PM, U.S. New Home Sales; at 11:30 PM, U.S. Weekly Crude Oil Inventories;at 12:00 AM, remarks by U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Bowman; at 1:00 AM, remarks by ECB President Lagarde; and at 1:00 AM, the U.S. 5-year Treasury auction. We need to closely monitor how the strength of the U.S. and European currencies evolves.

Past Market Reports

1. 20.04.2026New

   With the euro-Australian dollar pair hitting new lows this month, attention is turning to how much further it might fall

2. 17.04.2026New

   Will the market wait and see how much further the U.S. dollar can rise against the yen?

3. 16.04.2026New

   Will the weakening Swiss franc recover? Attention is turning to price movements during European trading hours.

4. 15.04.2026New

   Market participants are likely keeping a close eye on the upside potential of the euro, which has risen against the U.S. dollar

5. 14.04.2026New

   Should we keep an eye on remarks by key figures in the U.S. and try to gauge the direction of currency strength?

6. 13.04.2026

   Market participants are likely watching for signs of a rebound in the Canadian dollar, which fell against the U.S. dollar following the release of employment figures

7. 10.04.2026

   Will the weakening Swiss franc continue to strengthen against the yen, or should we wait and see?

8. 09.04.2026

   Will the U.S. dollar, which has fallen against the yen, continue its downward slide, or should we wait and see how the market moves?

9. 08.04.2026

   Should we keep an eye on the upside for European currencies that have risen against the U.S. dollar?

10. 07.04.2026

    Market participants may be wary of further downside potential for the U.S. dollar, which has weakened amid concerns over the situation in Iran