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All Eyes on U.S. CPI and the Direction of the U.S. Dollar

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All Eyes on U.S. CPI and the Direction of the U.S. Dollar

12.05.2021

Today's Highlights
  1. U.S. Consumer Price Index
  2. The euro-dollar exchange rate fell

Yesterday, both European and U.S. stock markets fell, leading to a scenario of falling stock prices, a weaker U.S. dollar, and rising interest rates. As stock prices declined, the fear index (VIX) rose above 20 to 21.8, and crude oil prices also climbed back up to 65.4. Gold traded within a range of $1,817 to $1,845.

In the foreign exchange market, the euro-dollar pair has fallen from yesterday’s U.S. trading session through today’s Asian session and is currently trading around 1.211. However, since the daily chart shows an uptrend, we should proceed with caution while gauging the direction of the U.S. dollar.Today’s U.S. CPI is expected to come in at 0.2%, and depending on whether the actual result matches or deviates from this forecast, it could provide some direction for the U.S. dollar.

Today, at 15:00 European time, the UK will release its first-quarter GDP (flash estimate), industrial production, and trade balance; at 15:45, France will release its consumer price index (final estimate); at 18:00, the Eurozone will releaseIndustrial Production and remarks by BOE Governor Bailey; at 20:00, the U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications Index; at 21:30 U.S. time, the U.S. Consumer Price Index; at 22:00, remarks by Fed Vice Chair Clarida; at 22:05, remarks by U.S. Federal Reserve’s Rosengren:Boston Fed President Rosengren; at 23:30, U.S. weekly crude oil inventories; and at 26:00, a U.S. 10-year Treasury auction. We will be watching closely to see if today’s U.S. CPI release brings about any shifts in the balance of power.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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