Attention on U.S. CPI and the direction of the U.S. dollar

Attention on U.S. CPI and the direction of the U.S. dollar

12.05.2021

Yesterday, both European and U.S. stock markets fell, leading to a scenario of falling stock prices, a weaker U.S. dollar, and rising interest rates. As stock prices declined, the fear index (VIX) rose above 20 to 21.8, and crude oil prices also climbed back up to $65.4. Gold traded within a range of $1,817 to $1,845.

In the foreign exchange market, the euro-dollar pair has fallen from yesterday’s U.S. trading session through today’s Asian session, settling around 1.211. However, since the daily chart indicates an uptrend, we should proceed with caution while gauging the direction of the U.S. dollar. Today’s U.S. CPI is forecast at 0.2%, and depending on whether the actual result aligns with expectations, this could provide some direction for the U.S. dollar.

Today, at 3:00 PM CET, the UK will release its Q1 GDP (flash estimate), industrial production, and trade balance; at 3:45 PM CET, France will release its CPI (final estimate);at 18:00, Eurozone Industrial Production and remarks by Bank of England Governor Bailey; at 20:00, the U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications Index; at 21:30 U.S. time, the U.S. Consumer Price Index; at 22:00, remarks by Federal Reserve Vice Chair Clarida; at 22:05, remarks by Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Rosengren;Boston Fed President, 11:30 PM US Weekly Crude Oil Inventories, and 2:00 AM US 10-Year Treasury Auction. We will be closely monitoring whether today’s US CPI release brings about any shifts in the balance of power.

Past Market Reports

1. 17.04.2026New

   Will the market wait and see how much further the U.S. dollar can rise against the yen?

2. 16.04.2026New

   Will the weakening Swiss franc recover? Attention is turning to price movements during European trading hours.

3. 15.04.2026New

   Market participants are likely keeping a close eye on the upside potential of the euro, which has risen against the U.S. dollar

4. 14.04.2026New

   Should we keep an eye on remarks by key figures in the U.S. and try to gauge the direction of currency strength?

5. 13.04.2026New

   Market participants are likely watching for signs of a rebound in the Canadian dollar, which fell against the U.S. dollar following the release of employment figures

6. 10.04.2026

   Will the weakening Swiss franc continue to strengthen against the yen, or should we wait and see?

7. 09.04.2026

   Will the U.S. dollar, which has fallen against the yen, continue its downward slide, or should we wait and see how the market moves?

8. 08.04.2026

   Should we keep an eye on the upside for European currencies that have risen against the U.S. dollar?

9. 07.04.2026

   Market participants may be wary of further downside potential for the U.S. dollar, which has weakened amid concerns over the situation in Iran

10. 06.04.2026

    Investors should be wary of sudden spikes in volatility while major markets are closed